The world may have to endure another three years of intermittent lockdowns, breathing through face masks, and regular reminders to social distance, according to a new pandemic outcome simulation by a team of Chinese researchers.
Scientists from Shanghai Normal University and Lanzhou University predicted that the pandemic has not yet reached a global peak. The number of infected would likely peak in March next year, with 80 million confirmed diagnoses and possibly several million more people untested.
The COVID-19 virus’ high contagiousness and relatively low death rate means it would not simply disappear like its cousin the SARS virus did years ago, after spreading to over 30 countries and regions. Even if there’s a safe and effective vaccine rollout next year, the pandemic is likely to persist through the second half of 2024. There will be enormous demand to inoculate as many of the world’s 7.8 billion people as possible, and making headway will take time.
People dine in plastic tents at a restaurant in Manhattan in New York City, amid the coronavirus pandemic
The team’s attempt to simulate a global pandemic scenario is likely the first in China, Huang Jianping, an atmospheric scientist at Lanzhou University. Other models, he added, tend to be national or regional in scope. Before COVID-19, Huang and his team specialized in climate-related simulations.
“For weather forecasts, we always do models at the global scale, so we decided to accept the challenge (to simulate the pandemic),” he said.
A man wearing a mask to protect himself from the coronavirus sits next to a display of face masks outside his shop in Dharmsala, India
Huang’s model incorporates several climate factors — including temperature and humidity — that may impact the spread of the virus. Moreover, they used nitrogen dioxide, a pollutant emitted mainly by automobiles, as an indicator of lockdown strength across the globe. If people aren’t staying home even when orders to do so are in effect, local nitrogen dioxide levels are likely to be higher.
The world may have to endure another three years of intermittent lockdowns, breathing through face masks, and regular reminders to social distance, according to a new pandemic outcome simulation by a team of Chinese researchers.
People dine in plastic tents at a restaurant in Manhattan in New York City, amid the coronavirus pandemic
A man wearing a mask to protect himself from the coronavirus sits next to a display of face masks outside his shop in Dharmsala, India
